Oil slips on European COVID concerns


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Oil slips on European COVID concerns

Brent crude dropped below $80.00 a barrel last week amid a fresh surge of COVID-19 cases across the Continent. In Austria, the Government reimposed a full national lockdown with previous measures targeting just the unvaccinated population failing to stem a fresh wave of infections[1]. This sparked protests across the country with demonstrations also taking place in the Netherlands and Belgium where tougher restrictions were also introduced. This sparked concerns amongst traders that the European recovery could be curtailed, impacting future demand for oil. Brent fell by -4.1% over the course of the week to $79.03 a barrel with OPEC stating it expects supply to outstrip demand during the first few months of 2022[2].

Despite the deteriorating COVID situation in Europe, global equity markets generally had another positive week. The S&P500 added +0.3% with consumer discretionary and technology focused companies doing much of the heavy lifting[3]. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose by +0.5%as investors digested the announcement of a record fiscal support package of circa $490.0bn. Whilst European bourses were somewhat mixed, the French CAC40 and German DAX closed the week +0.3% and +0.4% higher respectively. One market that did conclude the week in the red was the UK where the FTSE100 retreated by -1.7% after headline inflation climbed to its highest level for nearly a decade.

Moves in the bond market were somewhat muted with both the 10-year Gilt and 10-year Treasury yield declining by 4 basis points (bps) to 0.88% and 1.53% respectively. Bigger moves were seen in the Eurozone where the 10-year benchmark fell by 9bps to -0.28%, reflective of those concerns relating to the surge in COVID cases across the region. As for Japan, the equivalent duration sovereign yield was unchanged at 0.08%.


Week Ahead


Flash PMI figures are amongst the standout figures due from both the UK and the Eurozone this week. Whilst further growth is expected to be reported across the board during the first three weeks of November, it is expected to have slowed from the prior month’s activity levels. On Thursday, GDP data is also published in Germany although other headline data from around the Continent is in short supply on this occasion.

Preliminary Q3’21 GDP is also due from the US this week with growth expected to be upgraded by 20bps to +2.2% from the initial calculation. Durable goods orders data is published on Wednesday afternoon whilst in the housing sector, existing and new home sales are both due this week. Moving to Asia the Bank of Japan releases its preferred measure of Core CPI inflation which is expected to have fallen to 0.4% last month. There are no major macro figures due from China this time around. [4]


Read last week's market update

Bond Yields Rally On US Inflation Data


[1] The Austrian National Tourist Office, Coronavirus Update - November 21

[2] OilPrice.com - 19.11.21

[3] T Rowe Price - 19.11.21

[4] Forex Factory - 21.11.21




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