Snap election calls fuel market bounce in Japan

Snap election calls fuel market bounce in Japan

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19/01/2026
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Snap election in Japan

Global equity markets delivered a mixed but resilient performance during the week. In the US, the S&P 500 and other major indices saw modest weekly declines as investors digested a raft of earnings reports and macroeconomic data. While semiconductor and technology stocks rallied – partly on strong earnings and the outlook for AI-related demand – defensive sectors also posted gains, offsetting weakness in financials and interest-rate sensitive areas amid policy uncertainty. Despite the weekly dip, overall sentiment remained constructive as markets continued to hold near multi-year highs. In Europe, equities generally advanced over the week as earnings releases and economic data provided a supportive backdrop. The UK’s FTSE 100 held near elevated levels despite sector-specific weakness in industrial metals and resources, with mid-cap stocks showing strength.

In Japan, equity markets posted notable gains. Outperformance was driven predominantly by investor optimism around potential fiscal stimulus and early election speculation, which supported cyclical and technology sectors even as the yen remained relatively weak. In China, mainland equity markets were broadly flat. Investor sentiment was influenced by ongoing policy actions aimed at tightening speculative activity, including increases in margin trading requirements and other regulatory measures designed to curb excessive leverage. 

In bond markets, government yields were broadly stable, albeit exhibiting some intraweek volatility, as investors reacted to a steady flow of economic data and central bank commentary. Early declines in yields – reflecting demand for defensive assets amid geopolitical uncertainty – were partially reversed after stronger-than-expected activity and labour market indicators in the US and Europe. Credit markets remained resilient, however, with investment-grade and high-yield spreads holding tight as equity markets stayed near record levels and default concerns remained subdued. 

Commodity markets saw divergent moves over the week as safe-haven and risk-driven dynamics played out across key sectors. Precious metals delivered strong performance, with gold and silver reaching record highs helped by geopolitical tensions and investor demand for defensive assets early in the week. Energy commodities were more mixed. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated, trading in a range around the mid-$60s per barrel but ending the week slightly lower from mid-week highs, as supply-risk cues eased and broader market sentiment shifted.

DayCountryMeasurePeriodForecastPrevious
MondayChinaGDP QoQQ4'251.00%1.10%
ChinaIndustrial Production YoYDecember5.00%4.80%
ChinaRetail Sales YoYDecember-3.00%
ChinaUnemployment RateDecember5.10%5.10%
ChinaFinal CPI Inflation YoYDecember2.00%2.00%
TuesdayUKAverage Wages YoYNovember4.60%4.70%
UKUnemployment RateNovember5.00%5.10%
WednesdayUKCPI Inflation YoYDecember3.30%3.20%
UKPPI Inflation YoYDecember3.40%3.40%
ThursdayJapanNationwide Core CPI Inflation YoYDecember2.40%3.00%
USFinal GDP QoQQ3'254.30%4.30%
FridayEuropeFlash Composite PMIJanuary51.6051.50
UKFlash Composite PMIJanuary51.7051.40
UKRetail Sales YoYDecember1.00%0.60%

SJP Approved: 19/01/2026

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