A rebound of 0.53% in local currency terms (0.68% in sterling terms) saw the S&P 500 posts its first weekly gain since mid-February as the market correction paused for breath. The latest market bottom was reached on 13th March, with the S&P 500 trading around 2.7% higher as of Friday’s close. The US Federal Reserve’s main policy setting body, the FOMC, released its Economic Projections which signalled a dovish stance, with expectations for 50 basis points of rate cuts through to the end of the year. Inflation expectations were notched up from the December projection, while gross domestic product growth forecasts were lowered, with the post meeting statement noting that uncertainty had increased. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank’s base case is that the impact of tariffs will be transitory, and they remain on track to meet with 2% inflation target. This helped ease concerns around a possible tariff induced hawkish pivot. The main policy rate was held at 4.25%-4.5%.

Several other of the globes major central banks also met during the week. The Bank of England kept rates steady at 4.5%, in line with expectations, although with a larger majority than had been anticipated, giving markets a hawkish signal. Sweden and Switzerland’s central banks took different courses, with the Swedish Riksbank keeping rates unchanged at 2.25% while the Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to 0.25%. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5%, with their economic and price outlook broadly unchanged, maintaining their approach of gradual hikes as data confirms their outlook.

Global equity markets were broadly positive during the week. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.17%, while continental European markets, as represented by the MSCI Europe ex UK, rose 0.19% in sterling terms as Germany’s massive stimulus package cleared its final hurdle. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rallied 1.51%. Bucking the trend was the Chinese market; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 3.9% in two trading days as the People’s Bank of China kept rates on hold in the wake of resilient economic data, with the bank signalling that it saw no immediate need for further cuts. This dampened the hopes held by some investors that another wave of stimulus was forthcoming.

In commodity markets, gold hit a record high, reaching $3,058 driven by safe haven demand and rising inflation expectations. Crude oil prices also gained, with WTI up 1.02% on the week, closing at $68.28. In bond markets, US 10-year Treasury yields slipped moderately to 4.25%, while in the UK, the 10-year Gilt yield rose to 4.73%. German Bund yields settled down having spiked earlier in the month on the announcement of the fiscal package, with the 10-year ending the week at 2.77%.

Week Ahead

Source: ForexFactory, 24/03/25

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The value of an investment may fall as well as rise. You may get back less than the amount invested.

The value of investments may fall as well as rise purely on account of exchange rate fluctuations.

Source: London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2025. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. “FTSE Russell®” is a trade mark of the relevant LSE Group companies and is used by any other LSE Group company under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company's express written consent. The LSE Group
does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

© S&P Dow Jones LLC 2025. All rights reserved

Source: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, endorsed, reviewed or produced by MSCI. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.

The information contained does not constitute investment advice. It is not intended to state, indicate or imply that current or past results are indicative of future results or expectations.

Full advice should be taken to evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of any prospective investment. Opinions provided are subject to change in the future as they may be influenced by changes in regulation or market conditions. Where the opinions of third parties are offered, these may not necessarily reflect those of Rowan Dartington.

Rowan Dartington is part of the St. James’s Place Wealth Management Group. Rowan Dartington & Co. Limited is a member firm of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 02752304 at St. James’s Place House, 1 Tetbury Road, Cirencester, England, GL7 1FP, United Kingdom.

SJP Approved 24/03/2025