Global Stocks Push Higher Despite Ongoing Middle East Conflict

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08/04/2026
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Global Stocks Pushing Higher

In what proved to be another volatile week for global markets, a strong mid‑week rebound helped most major equity indices finish in positive territory. Sentiment remained heavily influenced by mixed signals from the White House, with President Trump first hinting at a willingness to scale back military operations in Iran before later suggesting that further strikes could be authorised in the weeks ahead. The uncertainty kept markets on edge, though the shortened Easter trading week contributed to some moderation in volumes. US equities nevertheless advanced across the board. The S&P 500 closed Thursday with a +3.0% weekly gain, while the technology‑heavy Nasdaq outperformed, rising +4.4% (both in dollars). The improvement in risk appetite was mirrored in government bond markets, where Treasury yields drifted lower, with the 10‑year yield falling by nine basis points to 4.35%, offering a modest tailwind to duration‑sensitive sectors.

Europe followed a broadly similar pattern, with equity markets posting solid gains across most major indices. The MSCI Europe ex‑UK index advanced +3.6% over the week (in euros), supported by particularly strong performance in Italy, while in the UK the FTSE 100 rallied +4.7%, reflecting the generally firmer tone across developed‑market equities. This came despite a sharp jump in Eurozone inflation for March, driven largely by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in energy costs, an unwelcome development for policymakers already wary of renewed price pressures. Asian markets were more mixed, reflecting the region’s deeper reliance on Middle Eastern energy. Indian markets were notably volatile, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to step in to help stabilise the rupee after a bout of pronounced weakness. In China, the Shanghai Composite slipped –0.5% (in renminbi) despite upbeat PMI figures, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell –0.5% (in yen) as hopes for de‑escalation in Iran receded.

Commodity markets also saw meaningful moves over the week, with oil and gold diverging as geopolitical uncertainty persisted. Brent crude fell -4.0% to $109 a barrel, easing back as traders assessed the likelihood of a temporary lull in Middle East tensions, even as supply risks remain elevated. In contrast, gold advanced +3.2% to $4,672 an ounce, attracting renewed demand as investors sought stability amid ongoing geopolitical strains and choppy equity markets.

 

DayCountryMeasurePeriodForecastPrevious
MondayUSISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Manager IndexMarch54.9056.10
TuesdayEuropeFinal Composite Purchasing Manager IndexMarch50.5050.50
UKFinal Composite Purchasing Manager IndexMarch51.0051.00
USDurable Goods Orders MoMFebruary-1.00%0.00%
WednesdayEuropeProducer Price Index Inflation YoYFebruary-3.00%-2.10%
EuropeRetail Sales YoYFebruary1.70%2.00%
ThursdayN/A----
FridayChinaConsumer Price Index Inflation YoYMarch1.20%1.30%
ChinaProducer Price Index Inflation YoYMarch0.40%-0.90%
USConsumer Price Index Inflation YoYMarch3.30%2.40%
Source: Workspace DataStream

 

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