US equity indices continued to press into record territory last week as investors processed a flurry of new trade announcements. Agreements with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines were all revealed whilst significant process was made during negotiations with the European Union (EU). A framework deal with the EU was eventually struck over the weekend which will see the EU now face a 15.0% tariff, significantly below the 30.0% that would have come into effect on the first of August. The S&P500 added +1.5% in dollar terms last week with the technology centric NASDAQ rising by +1.0%.
Progress on the trade front was certainly well received in Japan where the Nikkei 225 surged by +4.1% (in yen). Auto equipment manufacturers performed particularly well given their strong presence in the US car market. The 15.0% agreed tariff was a notable climbdown than the initial 25.0% threatened by the White House, albeit still meaningfully higher than where levies stood prior to April’s “Liberation Day” announcement.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Shanghai Composite advanced by +1.7% in anticipation of progress being made during this week’s trade discussions. A third round of talks between the two nations is taking place in Stockholm with anticipation that the current deal, which is due to expire in August, will be extended.
Positive returns were also seen in Europe where the MSCI Europe ex UK index and FTSE 100 rose by +0.5% and +1.4%, both in local currency terms. Optimism around those trade discussions with the US were countered to a degree by the European Central Bank (ECB) which held rates at its latest policy meeting.
Moving to commodities, oil prices traded lower as concerns around the global economic growth outlook outweighed the optimism surrounding trade. Brent crude declined by -1.2% to $68.47 a barrel, close to its lowest level for a month. Gold also retreated with the precious metal declining by -0.6% to $3,332 an ounce.
Week Ahead
| Day | Country | Measure | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| Monday | N/A | - | - | - | - |
| Tuesday | UK | Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting | July | - | - |
| Wednesday | Europe | Flash GDP QoQ | Q2'25 | 0.00% | 0.60% |
| US | Federal Reserve Policy Meeting | - | - | - | |
| US | Flash GDP QoQ | Q2'25 | 2.40% | -0.50% | |
| Thursday | China | Composite Official PMI | July | 49.70 | 49.70 |
| Europe | Unemployment Rate | June | 6.30% | 6.30 | |
| Japan | Retail Sales YoY | June | 1.80% | 2.20% | |
| Friday | Europe | CPI Inflation YoY | July | 1.90% | 2.00% |
| Japan | Unemployment Rate | June | 2.50% | 2.50% | |
| US | Average Wages YoY | July | 3.80% | 3.70% | |
| US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | July | 50.00 | 49.00 | |
| US | Non-Farm Payrolls | July | 110K | 147K | |
| US | Unemployment Rate | July | 4.20% | 4.10% |
Source: Workspace DataStream, 28/07/2025
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