After what felt like several months of tariff peace following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff bonanza back in April (and subsequent delay in implementation), trade taxation once again topped the news agenda last week. Significant new levies were announced on key US trading partners Japan and South Korea (25.0%) whilst a range of different taxes were announced for the likes of Mexico and the EU (both 30.0%) as well as a significant 50.0% on Brazil. The bulk of these new levies are set to come into effect at the start of August, and it remains to be seen what degree of retaliation will be thrown back at the US, especially given Trump’s threat of escalation should retaliatory duties be implemented. Given the market furore that followed the “Liberation Day” announcement, markets appeared to take last week’s newsflow in its stride with US equity indices largely flat. The S&P500 retreated by a modest ten basis points (bps) for the week (in dollars) despite NVIDIA becoming the first company in history to cross the $4.0tn market capitalisation threshold.
In Europe, equity markets advanced although those gains were front loaded as hopes of a favourable trade deal between the EU and the US faded. The MSCI Europe ex UK index rose by +1.1% (in euros), underpinned by strong gains in both France and Germany. As for the UK, the FTSE100 and FTSE250 indices rose by +1.3% and +0.3% respectively, despite the latest monthly GDP print showing a second straight month of contraction by the domestic economy. Tariff related news weighed on Japanese markets where the Nikkei 225 slipped by -0.6% (in yen), whilst in China, the Shanghai Composite added +1.1% (in yuan) on hopes of additional government stimulus given persistent deflationary pressures in the economy.
Elsewhere, oil prices rallied as traders shook off the tariff news and the threat that they pose to global growth. Brent Crude rose by +2.7% to $70.38 a barrel, reflective of increasing talk of additional sanctions on Russia and a report from the International Energy Agency which suggested that oil supplies may be tighter than it appears . Gold also inched higher with the precious metal rising by +1.0% to $3,365 an ounce last week, likely due to increased nervousness around the slew of tariff announcements last week.
Week Ahead
| Day | Country | Measure | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| Monday | N/A | - | - | - | - |
| Tuesday | China | GDP QoQ | Q2'25 | 0.90% | 1.20% |
| China | Industrial Production YoY | June | - | 6.30% | |
| China | Retail Sales YoY | June | - | 4.10% | |
| China | Unemployment Rate | June | - | 5.00% | |
| Europe | Industrial Production YoY | May | 2.90% | 0.80% | |
| US | CPI Inflation YoY | June | 2.70% | 2.40% | |
| Wednesday | UK | CPI Inflation YoY | June | 3.40% | 3.40% |
| US | PPI Inflation YoY | June | 2.50% | 2.60% | |
| Thursday | Europe | CPI Inflation YoY | June | 2.00% | 2.00% |
| UK | Average Wages YoY | June | 5.00% | 5.30% | |
| UK | Unemployment Rate | June | 4.60% | 4.60% | |
| US | Retail Sales YoY | June | - | 3.30% | |
| Friday | Japan | Nationwide Core CPI Inflation YoY | June | 3.30% | 3.70% |
| Building Permits (Seasonally Annually Adjusted Units) | June | 1.390m | 1.394m | ||
| Housing Starts (Seasonally Annually Adjusted Units) | June | 1.300m | 1.256m |
Source: Workspace DataStream, 14/07/2025
Sources:
[1] T. Rowe Price – Global Markets Weekly Update, 14/06/2025
[2] IEA – Oil Market Report, July 2025
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