The latest round of US jobs figures once again reiterated the resilience in the labour market, despite ongoing fears associated with the White House’s trade policy. The economy added 147,000 new jobs during June, exceeding estimates by nearly 40,000 whilst also representing a slight uptick on the prior month . The Labor Department also reported that the total number of jobs openings climbed to 7.8m roles during May, 400,000 higher than April and the most seen for six months . The headline unemployment rate also dipped, declining by 10 basis points (bps) to 4.1% [1]. The data was welcome news, especially after a separate earlier report from ADP showed a contraction in private payrolls, the first fall in that particular figure for more than two years . The S&P500 and NASDAQ equity indices reached new records for the second straight week, the former delivering a weekly gain of +1.7% and the latter +1.6% in US dollar terms.

Elsewhere, equity returns were largely mixed. In Europe, the MSCI Europe ex UK index retreated by -0.4% (local currency) whilst across the Channel, the FTSE100 added +0.3%. A small uptick in consumer price inflation (CPI) in Europe may have prompted some selling pressure as investors assessed the future path for interest rates on the Continent. Regarding Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Japan declined by -0.9% (in yen)) as trade negotiations with the US stalled. As for China, the Shanghai Composite recorded a +1.4% gain (local currency) with the latest round of Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI’s) painting a mixed picture of the economy.

Moving to commodities, oil markets paused for breath after an incredibly volatile couple of weeks. Brent Crude concluded the week +1.2% higher at $68.53 a barrel as traders weighed up various trade announcements coming from the US, fears around oversupply, and the ongoing Middle East situation. Gold also advanced last week, the precious metal rising by +1.8% to $3,333 an ounce on the back of US dollar weakness.

Week Ahead

Source: Workspace DataStream, 07/07/2025

Sources

[1] Bureau of Labor Statistics – Employment Situation Summary, June 2025
[2] T. Rowe Price – Global Markets Weekly Update, 04/06/2025
[3] ADP – National Employment Report, June 2025
 

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